高铁对民航业发展影响的实证分析

Empirical Research in High-speed Rail's Impact on Civil Aviation and its Implications

本文通过实证研究和定量分析高铁对民航近几年的影响,揭示了高铁对民航发展的影响尽管客观存在但程度有限。民航与高铁市场存在一些重叠,但民航航线组织灵活,能对外部环境和市场变化做出及时反应,将高铁对民航市场的影响逐步化解。随着社会经济持续较快发展,民航与高铁均有较大发展空间,而民航更有高铁所不及的国际化优势,为国际贸易发展做出贡献。

Through an empirical research and quantitative analysis in high-speed rail＇s impact on civil aviation in recent years, it reveals the impact is actually existing but limited. Civil aviation and HSR has respectively technical advantages and develop for different transportation market. Although their market has some overlap, but the civil aviation is flexible in routes connecting and it can make a timely response to the external environment and the changes in the market to reduce the impact gradually. With the rapid development of social economy, civil aviation and HSR both have a larger space for future development. Civil aviation also has the international advantages to benefit the development of international trade. In conclusion, from the macro perspective, the impact of the rise of a transport mode on other modes is embodied in the partial adjustment of transportation market among different modes, and the partial adjustment of the single transport mode among different regional markets.