P2P网络借贷风险预警体系研究

Research on Early Warning System of P2P Lending Risks

新型网络金融诸如P2P网络借贷的出现,不仅仅是对金融的突破和困惑,也是对整个社会经济的巨大触动。它较之传统借贷模式能有效摆脱地域和实物传输的限制,在更大的范围为借款人提供高效、便捷的服务。但随着隐藏的问题诸如提现困难、违法经营乃至跑路等事件的不断暴露,以及在高利诱惑下出现的非理性异样膨胀,其中的风险也不可小视。本文立足于P2P借贷的实际,围绕预警防范这一主题,循着"预警设计—实证检验"的脉络,着重搜集相关网络借贷平台的公司数据,将其纳入独具网络借贷行业特色的指标因子,构建了层次指标的风险预警架构;进而通过使用主成分分析进行计分和广义回归分析测算平台风险概率等,加以相互印证,旨在探寻适度监管的预警路径。

P2P online lending is the major representative of the new online finance in China. Compared with the traditional lending model, it can effectively get rid of the limitation of geographical and physical transportation, and provide efficient and convenient services for borrowers in greater scope. The emergence of P2P not only changes the established notions of lending mechanism but also provides a wide space for innovation. Meanwhile, hidden problems such as difficulties in withdrawals, illegal operations and evaporation of entrepreneurs have been exposed continuously. Its risk is like a knife hanging above the head. Based on the reality of P2P lending, this paper focuses on developing an early warning system of P2P lending risk with related data of P2P companies by using principal component analysis and the logistic model. This system predicts the state of P2P platforms, providing practical and targeted suggestions and exploring the proper path of moderate supervision.