基于可信性理论的含大规模可再生能源电网脆弱性评价

Vulnerability Evaluation of Power Grid with Large Scale Renewable Energy Sources Based on Credibility Theory

由于大规模消纳可再生能源的电网作为一个复杂系统,其脆弱性问题是不容忽视的。为了以增强其安全稳定性,提高网络的可靠性,基于可信性理论来对大规模消纳可再生能源造成的电网脆弱性影响进行全面、科学地评价研究。首先建立了基于大规模消纳可再生能源的电网脆弱性评价指标体系;然后利用可信性理论和粗糙集—粒子群优化法构建了一个多层次模糊综合评估模型。最后利用该模型对实例进行了分析评估,验证了模型的可行性与可靠性。通过系统、准确、科学地辨识电网中存在的脆弱点,对大规模消纳可再生能源的电网脆弱特性做出评价是一项具有十分重大意义的研究。

Large scale renewable energy grid is a complex system whose vulnerability cannot be ignored. In order to enhance its stability and improve the reliability of the network, this article makes a comprehensive and scientific evaluation research on vulnerability influence of large scale renewable energy grid on the basis of credibility theory. First of all, evaluation index system is established for vulnerability of large scale renewable energy grid. Then a multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is built by using credibility theory and rough set--the particle swarm optimization method. Finally, this model is used to evaluate cases and its feasibility and reliability are verified. It is of great significance to make vulnerability evaluation of large scale renewable energy grid on a systematic, accurate and scientific basis.