摘要
蒙特卡罗模拟法是进行项目不确定性分析的一种常用方法,而页岩气开发项目由于投资大、风险高,需加强经济评价的风险分析工作。根据页岩气开发特点,在考虑投资、页岩气产量、销售价格以及操作成本基础上,采用蒙特卡罗模拟方法对页岩气开发方案经济评价进行了风险分析,测算出了一个合理的内部收益率数值,提高了决策的可靠性。
Monte Carlo Simulation is commonly used to conduct uncertainty analysis of project; economic evaluation and risk analysis shall be strengthened for shale gas development project as it is featured by high investment and high risk. Risk analysis is conducted for economic evaluation of shale gas development scheme by Monte Carlo Simulation based on features of shale gas development,investment, output, sale price and operating cost of shale gas; and a reasonable internal rate of return value is estimated to improve the reliability of decisions.
出处
《天然气技术与经济》
2016年第6期22-23,57,共3页
Natural Gas Technology and Economy
关键词
页岩气
蒙特卡罗模拟
开发项目
经济评价
shale gas
Monte Carlo Simulation
development project
economic evaluation
