丝绸之路经济带人类发展指数差异的时空演变透视

A View on the Spatial-temporal Evolution of Differential Human Development Indexes on the Silk Road Economic Belt

运用差异系数、马尔科夫链和探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)方法对丝绸之路经济带沿线88个国家2001-2014年人类发展指数(HDI)差异的时空演变特征进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:时间维度上丝绸之路经济带沿线各国HDI差异在总体下降的趋势中表现出"缩小—扩大—缩小"的阶段性特征,且存在着高水平、中高水平、中低水平和低水平四种不同类型的趋同俱乐部;空间维度上丝绸之路经济带沿线各国HDI分布不仅存在明显的空间正自相关,而且在欧洲和亚洲存在局部集聚分布特征;同时研究期内HDI分布的空间格局与差异具有时间上的敏感性与依赖性。最后,基于HDI差异提出丝绸之路经济带框架下开展区域经济合作应关注的问题。

Using differential coefficient, Markov Chain and Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis （ESDA） methods, this paper has analyzed the spatial-temporal evolution of differential human development indexes （HDIs） collected in 2001-2014 from 88 nations on the Silk Road Economic Belt. The result shows that in temporal dimension, a pattern of ＂narrowing down-expanding-narrowing down＂ exists among a general trend of declined HDIs from different nations on the belt; in addition, four types of convergence clubs, which are high level, above-average level, below-average level, and low level, co-exist. The result also reveals that in spatial dimension, there exists an obvious positive auto-correlation in the distribution of HDIs from different nations on the belt; in addition, an aggregated distribution of HDIs exists among the European and Asian nations. The result also indicates that during the study period the spatial pattern and differential HDI distributions are time-sensitive and time-dependent. After all these being discussed, this paper suggests that based on the framework of differential HDIs, regional economic cooperation should be emphasized among the nations on the Silk Road Economic Belt.