1951—2013年丹东地区气象条件的变化及其与玉米产量的相关分析

Changes of meteorological conditions in Dandong area during 1951—2013 and its correlation with corn yield

为了解气象条件对农作物产量的作用,探讨气候变化背景下农作物产量受到的影响,利用1951—2013年丹东地区气温、0 cm地温、降水、相对湿度、日照、蒸发资料,分析丹东地区气象要素的变化趋势。利用2002—2012年丹东玉米年平均每667 m2产量和气象要素资料分析丹东玉米产量受气象条件的相关影响。结果表明,1951—2013年丹东地区气温、0 cm地温变化呈上升趋势,降水、相对湿度、日照、蒸发的变化呈下降趋势;相对湿度和丹东玉米产量的变化呈负相关,气温、0 cm地温、日照、降水、蒸发和丹东玉米产量的变化呈正相关,其中气温和丹东玉米产量的相关度最高。建立气温、0 cm地温、降水、相对湿度、日照、蒸发对丹东玉米产量的回归预测模型,预测模型对丹东玉米产量模拟值和实测值的相关度高达0.9496。

In order to understand the effects of meteorological conditions on the yield of crops, and to discuss the impact on crop yield under climate change, based on the temperature, ground temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, sunshine and evaporation data of Dandong area in 1951-2013, the changing trend of meteorological factors in Dandong area was analyzed, and the effects of meteorological conditions on the yield of maize in Dandong based on the data of annual average yield per 667 m^2 and meteorological conditions in 2002-2012 were analyzed. The results showed that the changes of temperature and ground temperature showed an upward trend in Dandong area during 1951-2013, precipitation, relative humidity, sunshine, evaporation showed a downward trend, the change of relative humidity was negatively correlated with corn yield in Dandong area, temperature, ground temperature, sunshine, precipitation, evaporation had positive correlation with corn yield, in while the correlation of temperature and corn yield in Dandong area was the highest. The regression forecasting model of corn production in Dandong area was established with temperature, ground temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, sunshine and evaporation. The correlation degree between simulation and measured value of corn yield in Dandong area was 0.9496.