玉米替代品进口对我国玉米市场的影响

Influence of maize substitutes import on domestic maize market

近年来,我国饲料玉米的替代品即大麦、高粱、DDGS的进口量激增,其主要原因有:替代品进口价格与国内玉米价格的价差明显;替代品进口没有配额限制;饲料加工企业为了节约生产成本积极调整配方,玉米替代品的利用率开始提高。通过建立联立方程组模型研究玉米替代品进口对我国玉米市场的影响,包括对玉米需求、玉米国内价格和玉米供给的影响。结果表明:替代品进口价格对玉米饲料需求有显著的正向影响,对玉米国内价格的影响表现为显著的间接影响,即通过对玉米饲料需求的影响间接影响国内玉米价格。

In recent years, the import quantities of substitutes of maize, barley, sorghum and DDGS, are surging. One of the reason is that the difference in price between substitutes import and domestic maize, the other one is that the import quotas don＇ t cover the substitutes. Feed processing enterprises actively adjust formula to save production cost, which boosts the utilization of substitutes. This paper studied the influence of substitutes import on domestic maize market, including the domestic price, demand and supply for maize, through establishment of partial equilibrium model. The results showed that the import prices of substitutes had remarkable positive influence on feed demand for maize and import quantity of substitutes had inconspicuously negative influence on feed demand for maize. The import of substitutes showsed a indirect influence, through affecting the feed demand for maize, on the domestic price of maize.