基于正交试验的“十三五”中国能源强度情景预测与分析

Scenario Prediction and Analysis on China's Energy Intensity in 13th Five-year Based on Orthogonal Test

基于1990—2014年相关数据,利用多元回归法构建了中国能源强度预测模型,分析了能源价格、产业结构、能源结构、人口总数4个因素对中国能源强度的影响。将正交试验法与情景分析法相结合,对"十三五"期间中国的能源强度发展进行情景预测及相关路径规划。结果表明:4个因素对中国能源强度均具有显著影响,其中人口总数增加和能源结构优化对中国能源强度的降低具有抑制作用,产业结构调整和能源价格上升对能源强度的降低具有促进作用。对2016—2020年中国能源强度的发展路径进行情景预测,其中2020年中国能源强度最低可降至0.477吨标准煤/万元。最后,提出合理的政策建议。

The paper builds the China＇s energy intensity forecast model with the multiple regression method to analyze the impact of energyprice,industrial structure,energy structure and population on China＇s energy intensity in the period of 1990-2014. And it combines the orthogonaltest method with the scenario analysis method to forecast the development of energy intensity in China in the period of 2016-2020. The resultsshow as follows：the above four factors have significant effects on China＇s energy intensity;specifically,the increase of population and the optimi-zation of energy structure have positive impacts on the increase of China＇s energy intensity,and the adjustment of industrial structure and the in-crease of energy price could promote the decrease of China＇s energy intensity. The forecast result obtains nine groups of the most representativescenario planning program of China＇s energy intensity from 2016 to 2020. China＇s energy intensity could be reduced to 0. 477tce/millionyuan. Finally,it puts forward some policy suggestions.