摘要
煤炭是我国最主要的一次能源,其运输量约占铁路货运量的50%,煤炭市场的波动对铁路运输的影响巨大。因此,提出通过编制铁路煤炭运输景气指数,全面监控煤炭市场及其上下游的走势。在对煤炭市场供需分析的基础上,构建包括108个监测指标的铁路煤炭运输景气指标体系,通过景气指数编制方法中的时差分析法筛选出18个先行指标和14个同步指标,测算扩散指数和合成指数,应用计算结果综合判断铁路煤炭运输市场的变化趋势。
Coal is the most important primary energy in China and its transportation volume accounts for about 50% of the railway freight. The fluctuation of coal market has great influence on railway transportation. Therefore, this paper proposes to programming the railway coal transport prosperity index and comprehensively monitor the trend of the coal market and its upstream and downstream. Based on the analysis of the supply and demand of coal market, this paper constructs the railway coal transport index system with 108 monitoring indicators. By means of time difference analysis in the climate index compilation method, 18 leading indicators and 14 synchronous indexes are selected to calculate the diffusion index and the composite index. The change trend of the railway coal transportation market can be judged synthetically by the calculated results.
出处
《铁道货运》
2016年第12期19-24,共6页
Railway Freight Transport
基金
中国铁道科学研究院科研项目(2016YJ081
2015YJ080
2014YJ099)
中国铁路总公司科技研究开发计划课题(2016X007-B)
关键词
煤炭市场
景气指数
时差分析法
指标体系
Coal Market
Prosperity Index
Time Difference Analysis Method
Index System
