交通拥挤成本的测算与拥挤税设计:以上海为例

Estimation on Traffic Congestion Cost and Design of Congestion Tax in Shanghai

该文改进与拓展了交通拥挤外部成本的经典测算模型,将交通拥挤成本分为时间延误成本、额外燃油成本、交通事故成本和环境污染成本等四项,并且在测算时间延误成本时,计入了出行者和车辆运输的额外成本。该文基于新的测算模型,估算了2014年上海工作日早晚高峰时段交通拥挤的外部成本,结果表明,交通拥挤的外部成本约为同年上海GDP的0.7%,其中占九成以上为时间延误成本。最后,该文具体讨论了上海交通拥挤税试点的方案设计,并对交通高峰时段的交通拥挤税税率设定提出了建议。

This paper improves and extends the classic model of congestion externality and divides traffic congestion cost into four parts：time delay cost,additional fuel cost,traffic accident cost and environmental pollution cost,where time delay cost includes the additional cost of travelers and vehicles related to the time delay.Results by the new model show that external cost caused by traffic congestion during peak hours on weekdays in Shanghai in 2014 accounts for about 0.7% of the GDP in Shanghai of the year,among which time delay cost accounts for more than 90%.To alleviate the problem,this paper proposes a pilot scheme to levy congestion tax during peak hours.