基于分位数回归法的农民生猪养殖意愿影响因素分析

Factor Analysis on Pig Breeding Willingness of Farmers Based on Quantile Regression Method

理论界对影响农民生猪养殖的研究,主要从总体上分析影响养殖意愿的各种因素及其作用程度。利用湖南省抽样调查所获280份生猪养殖户的养殖数据,运用分位数回归模型分析影响农户养殖意愿的因素,深入研究农民养殖意愿及其影响因素间回归关系。研究结果表明,不论是OLS模型还是分位数回归模型,养殖户的年龄、文化程度、养殖净收益、劳动力人数及是否得到政策支持均对养殖户养殖意愿产生影响。但在分位数回归模型中,对于养殖规模较小的养殖户,年龄越大,劳动力人数越多,养殖意愿越弱,女性相比于男性更倾向于养殖;对于养殖规模较大的养殖户,生猪养殖收入占总收入比重较大,劳动力人数较多,养殖户养殖意愿较高,而年龄、性别变量不显著;养殖户文化程度和养殖净收益对养殖户养殖意愿影响显著。

The study on live pig breeding willingness of farmers in theoreticalrealm, mainly focused on the various affecting factors of willingness and their effects .This paper had applied quantile regression toanalyze the factors that influenced farmers breeding willingness by using the 280 samples data of live pigfarmers from Hunan Province, and made more detailed and deep reaserches on regression relationshipbetween farmers＇ breeding willingness and influencing factors. The result showed the factors, such as age,education level, net income from raising live pigs, labor force, and whether getting the support of governmentor not influenced the farmers＇ willingness to raise pigs no matter in the ordinary least squares model or thequantile regression model. But in the quantile regression model, for small-scale farmers, the older they wereand the more labor force they had, the weaker their willingness to breed would be. Besides, women weremore likely than men to raise pigs. For lager-scale farmers, their incomes from raising live pigs took up alarger proportion of the total income, they had more labors, so their willingness to raise live pigs werestronger. But the factors, such as age and gender had insignificant influence on their willingness to raise livepigs. No matter what condition was education level of farm households and breeding net income, obviouslyinfluenced the farmers＇ willingness to raise live pigs.