“营改增”视角下流转税改革优化了产业结构吗?

Did the Reform of Turnover Tax Optimize Industrial Structure?

税制改革是我国经济转型与产业结构调整的重要推动力。本文构建了流转税改革影响产业结构优化的理论模型,重点考察"营改增"改革对产业结构变迁的作用机理与影响效果。并运用面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型,实证检验"营改增"改革对我国产业结构升级演进的影响。研究表明:以"营改增"为主线索的流转税改革降低了国民经济中第二产业占比,提高了国民经济中第三产业占比,促进了产业结构优化。同时,通过脉冲响应与方差分解定量测度"营改增"对产业结构优化的贡献程度,发现面对营业税变量的冲击第二产业反应程度更大,面对增值税变量的冲击第三产业反应程度更大。最后,依据数理模拟与实证分析结论,提出产业结构优化的政策启示。

Tax reform is an important impetus to China＇s economic restructuring and industrial restructuring. This paper constructs a theoretical model of the effect of turnover tax reform on industrial structure optimization, and focuses on the mechanism and effect of the reform of the reform of ＂business reform＂ on industrial structure. （PVAR） model to test the impact of the reform on the evolution of China＇s industrial structure. The results show that turnover tax reform, which is the main clue of ＂business change and increase＂, reduces the proportion of the secondary industry in the national economy, improves the proportion of the tertiary industry in the national economy and promotes the optimization of the industrial structure. At the same time, by the impulse response and variance decomposition quantitative measure ＂ camp to increase＂ on the contribution of industrial structure optimization degree, found that the impact of the face of the impact of business tax variables greater degree of the second industry, the impact of the face of VAT variable tertiary industry responsemore. Finally, according to the conclusion of mathematical simulation and empirical analysis, the policy enlightenment of industrial structure optimization is put forward.