湿球温度计算方法及序列连续性研究

Study on the Estimation and Data Continuity of Wet Bulb Temperature

湿球温度是许多大型工程设计的重要参数,是影响工程安全、投资成本和运营效益的关键因子。停止观测后,寻求合理的湿球温度计算方法及对其的连续性研究迫在眉睫。文章选取牛顿迭代法和最优逼近法,基于江苏省70台站1991—2001、2004年（及13站长年代——近40年）的观测数据检验两种方法的估算偏差及探讨资料的连续性应用。最优逼近法的计算精度高,离散度低,与湿球温度的观测记录吻合好（90.8%~100%）,显著优于牛顿迭代法（12.7%~20.1%）,且呈现出09—20时符合率较高,日出前后符合率较低的变化特征。近40年的长年代对比分析表明,最优逼近法的计算结果稳定性好,在一定程度上可替代湿球温度的观测值,估算效果在温度高时较好,温度低时相对较弱;并且基于最优逼近法,利用百叶箱柱状干湿表数据估算的时间序列,相对长年代数据的不均一性,对湿球温度数据的连续性研究更为可靠。

Wet bulb temperature is an important parameter in some large-scale engineering design and safety, and a key factor in investment costs and operational effectiveness. Since wet bulb temperature observation stopped, it is pretty important to solve how to get more accurate data and study the continuity. Therefore, based on the hourly and timing data of 70 stations in Jiangsu Province, the Newton iterative method and the best approximation method are used to study the variance calculation and data continuous application. The best approximation method is better with high accuracy, and good compliance rate （90. 8%-100%）, which is far higher than that of the Newton iterative method （12.7%-20.1%）. And the results present an obvious diurnal variation that the coincidence rate is the higher during 09：00-20：00 BT, but lower before and after sunrise. The analysis of the 40-year series shows that the calculation results of the best approximation have a good stability, and to a certain extent, could replace the observed value. The effect is better when temperature is high and vice versa. Compared with the heterogeneity in the decade data, research on the continuity of the wet bulb temperature data is more reliable.