港珠澳大桥建成对香港经济的影响研究

Analysis of the impact on Hong Kong's economy due to the establishment of Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao bridge

本文对港珠澳大桥通车对香港经济的影响进行了分析和测算,首先选取珠三角各个城市对香港的出口额/进口额,珠三角各个城市的GDP、人均GDP,香港的GDP、人均GDP,珠三角各市到香港的距离为指标,利用引力模型,测算出2017年、2020年、2025年和2030年香港与珠三角各市在大桥通车前后距离变化带来的进出口额的变化;接着,在C-D模型基础上,引入进出口贸易因素,并将科研水平加入到技术变化指标中,采用岭回归估计计算出进出口贸易对香港经济的影响.最后得到港珠澳大桥通车对香港经济的影响效应.在测算的基础上,为港珠澳大桥背景下三地的发展提出了四点建议.

In this paper, we calculated the impact on Hong Kong＇s economy due to the establishment of Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao bridge. First, the amount of exports/imports between the pearl river delta cities and Hong Kong, the GDP and per capita GDP of the pearl river delta cities, the GDP and per capita GDP of Hong Kong, the distance of the pearl river delta cities to Hong Kong are chosen as indexes. The change of imports and exports amount due to the change of the distance between Hong Kong and the pearl river delta cities in 2017, 2020, 2025 and 2030, are measured by using the gravity model. And then, based on Cobb Douglas model, import/export trade indicators are introduced and scientific research level is added to the index of technological change, we measured the influence of import and export trade on Hong Kong＇ s economy with the ridge regression estimation method. So we obtain the economic effect due to the establishment of Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao bridge. At last, we put forward some suggestions.