产业结构升级、能源结构优化与产业体系低碳化发展

Upgrading of Industrial Structure,Optimizing of Energy Structure,and Low Carbon Development of Industrial System

本文借助Kaya恒等式对产业体系的碳排放量进行因素分解,分析生产技术、资本和劳动力等生产要素升级对产业体系低碳化发展的影响,以此为基础构建产业体系碳排放模型,对我国29个省区产业体系及其三次产业1995—2014年间的碳排放强度、能源碳排放密度和能源消费强度进行测度,并对影响产业体系碳排放强度、能源碳排放密度和能源消费强度的因素进行分析。研究发现,我国产业体系低碳化发展是由能源结构的变化所驱动,属于能源结构变化型;由于产出占比和能源消费占比较大,导致我国产业体系能源消费强度,即能源使用效率主要受二次产业的影响。

By means of the Kaya identity, this paper has done the factor decomposition of carbon emission in industrial system, and modeled the upgrading of industrial structure by the production function. This paper the impact of the upgrading of production factors on the low-carbon development of industrial system, such as production technology, capital and labor force. The research found, low-carbon development of China＇s industrial system was driven by the energy structure changes, the use of a large number of high carbon coal increased carbon emission density of industrial system. Because of higher output proportion and energy consumption proportion of the industry II, the energy intensity of China＇s industrial system, that is, the efficiency of energy use is mainly affected by the industry II.