中国农村人口空心化测量指标改进研究

Improvement of the Measurement Index of the Rural Population Hollowing in China

首先对前人研究提出的农村人口空心化测量指标进行评价,认为已有的测量指标存在明显的估计偏误,未能凸显农村人口空心化的本质。然后,从农村人口空心化的本质属性出发,结合数据可获得性,构建在外居住乡村户籍人口占比、外出从业劳动力占比和非农从业劳动力占比3个新的测量指标,并利用相关数据对全国和各省农村人口空心化进行了测算。最后,对上述新测量指标的优缺点进行比较分析,发现乡村户籍人口占比、外出从业劳动力占比和非农从业劳动力占比估计精度依次降低,但数据可获得性则依次增强。

The problem of rural population hollowing has attracted more and more attention in academic circles. The measurement index is the basis of evaluating the situation of the rural population hollowing. In this paper, we first evaluate the measurement index of the rural population hollowing generated by previous studies. We find that the existing measurement indicators have obvious estimation errors, and fail to highlight the nature of the rural population hollowing. Then we construct three new indicators including living-outside rural household population ratio, migrated rural labor ratio, and non-agricultural labor force ratio. Finally, the advantages and disadvantages of the new measurement indexes are compared.