多场景技术与盲数相结合的配电系统可靠性评估

Distribution system reliability evaluation based on multiple scenarios technique and blind number

为了提高考虑可靠性原始参数不确定性的配电系统可靠性评估效率,提出了多场景技术与盲数理论相结合的可靠性评估算法。该算法首先分析配电网元件可靠性参数的变化过程,提出了通过浴盆形曲线函数获得可靠性参数初始盲数区间和可信度的方法。为降低可靠性评估的复杂性,采用后向场景缩减法对盲数场景进行缩减,利用最少的场景最大程度地拟合可靠性参数的不确定性。最后提出了一种新的可靠性评估算法,采用顺向层级矩阵传递元件块故障对下游负荷可靠性指标的影响,采用逆向层级矩阵传递隔离开关块故障对上游负荷可靠性指标的影响。算例仿真结果表明,上述方法有效可行。

In order to improve distribution system reliability evaluation efficiency with original parameter uncertainty taken into consideration, a method based on multiple scenarios technique and blind number is proposed. Firstly, the change process of reliability parameters on distribution system component is analyzed and the method to obtain the initial blind intervals and credibility by bathtub-shaped curve function is proposed. In order to reduce the complexity of the reliability assessment, the backward scenarios reduction technique is utilized to cut down the degree of blind number scenarios, with which a minimum scenario is used to fit reliability parameters uncertainty to the maximum extent. Finally, a new algorithm of reliability assessment is proposed, of which the sequential hierarchy matrix is used to transfer the impact of element block faults on the downstream load reliability indexes while the reverse hierarchy matrix is used to transfer the impact of disconnector block faults on upstream load reliability indexes. The reliability assessment results of the example show that the algorithm is effective and feasible. This work is supported by the Specialized Research Fund for Doctoral Program ef Higher Education of China （No. 20110141110032）.