基于层次分析-熵权组合法的架空输电线路综合运行风险评估

Comprehensive operation risk evaluation of overhead transmission line based on hierarchical analysis-entropy weight method

针对当前多种气象灾害对架空输电线路的共同影响研究的不足,提出采用层次分析-熵权组合方法综合评估各气象灾害对架空输电线路的影响程度。通过层次分析法确定主观权重,熵权法确定客观权重,主客观结合,并利用最小二乘法组合优化,确定各风险权重。由此建立了采用风险权重、风险概率、风险后果来表征线路综合运行风险的评估模型。最后,将该模型应用于某区域电网线路,通过具体实例验证了该评估模型的可行性。

Aiming at the shortcomings of current study of mutual impact on varied meteorological disasters on the overhead transmission line, a comprehensive evaluation on the impact degree of varied meteorological disasters on transmission line based on the proposed hierarchical analysis-entropy weight method is introduced. Where the subjective weight is determined by the analytic hierarchy, the objective weight is determined by the entropy weight method and the risk weight is determined by means of least square method, so the evaluation model for comprehensive operation risk of transmission line with risk weight, risk probability and risk consequence is established naturally. Finally, its feasibility is verified by applying it to transmission lines of some regional power network. This work is supported by National High-tech R ＆ D Program of China （863 Program） （No. 2012AA050209 and No. 2011AA05A 120）.