地铁公司建设资金存量管控模型及应用研究

Management and Control Model of Construction Capital Stock for Metro Firms

资金存量管控是地铁公司从粗放式转向精细化管理面临的关键问题。基于地铁公司建设资金管理特点,对比BAT模型、Miller-Orr模型、因素分析法等方法的局限性,采用因素分析法提出了适用于地铁公司的建设资金存量测算模型。全面梳理影响地铁公司资金持有量的相关因素,认为影响其建设资金存量的因素主要有未来期间的工程投资支出、财政资金支持状况、宏观金融政策环境、资金用途限定和风险管理偏好。在定性分析的基础上选取反映各因素的5个指标,设置基础保障调整系数和超额保障调整系数等5种调整系数,给出资金存量测算的量化公式。同时,根据资金存量上、下限划分出5个不同的区域,对相应的存量区域实施不同的管控措施。以某地铁公司为例,对该模型进行了实证检验,并提出使用该模型时的注意事项:关注非正常资金支付事件;定期更新系数;关注资金结构的不均衡性。

Capital stock control is a key point for a metro firm to successfully transform its extensive management mode to an intensive one. Taking into consideration of the specific characteristics of capital management for a metro firm,and the limitations of analysis methodologies using BAT model,Miller-Orr model and factor analysis method,this paper proposed an estimation model of construction capital stock for metro firms by using the factor-analysis method for the comprehensive analysis of the factors,including the future construction investment / expenditure,fiscal capital support,macro-financial policy,capital use limitation and risk management preference. Five indicators are selected for the relevant factors by means of qualitative analysis and five adjustment factors are set up,including the basic safeguard adjustment factor and upper limit factor. A quantitative formula is proposed for the forecast of capital stock. In the meantime,five zones of capital stock are defined in accordance with different control measures. Case study is conducted for verification on a sample metro firm and it is concluded that special attention should be paid to the non-regular capital outflowand non-balanced capital structure and that the factors should be updated on a regular basis.