体育领域灰色系统理论相关文献的计量学分析——基于1986—2015年CNKI数据库

Metrology Literatures Using Grey System Theory In Sports Scientific Research——Based on 1986-2015 CNKI database

从1986年灰色系统理论被应用于体育科研至今,灰色系统理论已经在体育科研领域中存在了30年的时间。但是,随着时间的流逝,体育界大部分学者和专家不再关注灰色系统理论,甚至排斥和抵触灰色系统理论。为找到产生这种状况的原因,文章收集了清华同方CNKI全文期刊库中1986—2015年所有运用灰色系统理论的体育科研论文,经过数据化处理后,借助DPS软件处理数据,运用灰色预测法将30年间灰色系统理论相关文献的变化情况分段,并使用MATLAB软件中的图形模块呈现部分数据,以便于更直观精确地反映数据变化过程。研究结果显示,30年里,灰色理论在体育领域的发展经历了四个时期:初步发展期、快速发展期、平台期和衰退期。经分析后发现灰色系统理论并不过时,并且它在体育科研领域中后备力量充足。造成灰色系统理论相关文献大幅度减少的原因是多方面的,其中包括基础研究不足、相关学者创新意识不够、大数据时代环境等因素的影响。

The grey system theory have developed for 30 years in the field of China＇s sports scientific research field by year 2015. However, the grey system theory in China sports scientific theory is almost entered a spent force. For revi- sing the situation it owned, and estimate the status of development for grey system theory in the field of Chinese sports scientific research, we based on full text periodical database （CNKI） developed by Singh research papers using Grey systemic theory in sports field past ten years. We analyze date by DPS and MATLAB. The result shows that Grey theory in Chinese sports field had expired four stage. It include of Preliminary development stage, rapid develop- ment stage, plateau and recession stage. Now it is in recession stage. It suggests that we should start with science pop--vulgarization for the future in order to promote grey theory＇s healthier development in china sports field. Cau- ses of this situation are various, it include lack basic research, less relevant academic innovation and influence of envi- ronmental.