中国玉米期货市场成长性与功能分析

Growth and Function of Chinese Maize Futures Market

在分析成交量、持仓量、交割量的基础上,研究了玉米期货上市以来的成长性及其成因。通过对期现货价格相关系数、协整关系、价格引导等方面的分析发现,期现货价格相关性整体水平不高,期货价格的引导性不足;通过对每年期现货价格基差以及每年周、月、季3个时间段套期保值比率和套期保值效率的分析,发现套期保值功能发挥水平总体较差,部分年份不能发挥作用。建议减少政策干扰,健全现货市场体系,完善期货市场交割体系,推进期货市场发展以发挥其经济功能。

Based on the analysis of trading volume, position and delivery volume, the growth of China＇s maize futures market and its reasons were analyzed. The correlation coefficient, cointegration relation, price guide relation of futures and spot prices were researched, the author found that the overall correlation between future price and spot price was insignificant, the guide of futures price was poor. Through the analysis of the basis of the futures and spot prices each year and the annual three time periods of week, month, quarter hedging ratio and hedging efficiency, the author found that the futures market was weak in its hedging function, even it didn＇t play a role in some year. It was suggested to reduce policy interference, improve the spot market system and futures delivery system, and promote the development of futures market to exert its economic function.