第三波民主化国家的政体转型与治理绩效(1974—2013)

The Third Wave of Democratization in Four Decades(1974-2013):Regime Transition and Governance Performance

第三波民主化自1974年启动以来已经取得了重大进展还是面临着严重挫败?这项研究试图对第三波民主化四十年间(1974—2013年)的进程进行评估。基于国际政体评级机构和世界银行的数据,这项研究发现:第三波民主化1974年—2013年在全球范围内已取得重大进展;本文选取的73个第三波民主化国家在政体转型上呈现显著的分化,民主巩固国家、转型中国家和民主受挫国家分别占30.1%、38.4%和31.5%的比例;第三波民主化国家2004年—2013年间的全球治理指数略低于世界平均水平,但民主巩固国家全球治理指数大大高于世界及其他对照国家组别的平均值;第三波民主化国家2004年—2013年间的经济增长率表现不俗,但通货膨胀率和失业率略微逊色,与世界平均水平及其他对照国家组别相比各有千秋。总之,这项研究为评估第三波民主化国家的政体转型与治理绩效提供了更系统的经验证据。

Has the third wave of democratization,which was initiated in 1974,made great progress or faced serious setbacks?This article attempts to assess the progress of the third wave of democratization over the past four decades(1974- 2013). Based on the datasets from Polity Ⅳ,Freedom House,and The World Bank,the author found that:(1)the third wave of democratization did make great progress from 1974 to 2013;(2)73 countries involved in this wave of democratization performed differently in terms of regime transition:some enjoy consolidated democracy,some are still in the middle of transition,and some suffer democratic setbacks,accounting for 30.1%,38.4% and 31.5% respectively;(3)Worldwide Governance Indicators of the countries involved in the third wave of democratization from 2004 to 2013 were slightly lower than the world's average,but the countries which enjoy consolidated democracy performed much better than the world's average and the compared groups;and(4)compared with the world's average and the compared groups,the countries involved in the third wave of democratization performed better in terms of the GDP growth rate,but worse in terms of the inflation rate and unemployment rate,from 2004 to 2013. In short,this research provides a more systematic empirical evidence for a correct evaluation of regime transition and governance performance in the third wave of democratization.