疲弱复苏的世界经济：新变量、新趋势与新周期--2017年世界经济分析报告

2017 World Economy: Weak Recovery with New Variables,New Trends,and New Long-term Growth Cycle

2016年全球经济增长依旧缓慢,虽不乏亮点,但仍然比较脆弱。这主要是因为目前世界经济受制于一系列深层次的结构性困境,难以走向复苏和增长。展望2017年,世界经济又增添了美国新总统上任、逆全球化升温、贸易保护主义抬头等许多新的不确定性变量,全球经济或仍将维持低增长和弱复苏态势,短期内不稳定性、不确定性增加。如今看来,要走出世界经济的结构性困境并由此实现快速复苏和新的增长,仅仅依靠传统的再平衡政策范式已很难奏效。当前的世界经济既无力在旧有框架下再次回到原有平衡状态,更不可能在本轮周期内重新恢复到危机前的高增长模式,而是需要通过深刻的结构性改革与创新,推动世界经济由再平衡走向新常态,并开启世界经济新的发展周期。综观全球发展大势,当前世界经济已迎来长周期之变,即世界经济正告别上一轮长周期,同时也在孕育新的发展周期,而开启世界经济新周期的根本之道在于技术革命和产业创新。对同样处在经济发展大转型的中国而言,需敏锐抓住世界经济长周期的转折性态势和历史性机遇,以中国发展新理念引领世界经济新周期,让世界经济新周期助推中国经济新发展。

Although there are many highlights,the global economic growth is still slow and fragile in 2016. Noticeably,a series of 'structural-paradoxes' have being emerged during the growth downturn of the world economy. In 2017,the world economy will continue to maintain low growth and weak recovery,and will be more uncertain and unstable,due to many new uncertain variables such as the incoming Trump administration,the trend of anti-globalization,New Trade Protectionism and so on. Until now it seemed that the world economy is unable to rebalance,also will not return to pre-crisis high growth level,even facing with structural adjustment and cyclical transformation. The current world economy is in the recession stage of an old long cycle and in the inoculation stage of a new one,which means an in-between situation of two different long growth cycles. The technology revolution and industry innovation is the fundamental way to open a new long growth cycle. China,during dramatic economic transition,is necessary to grasp the opportunity of transition process between two different development cycles of world economy. The five new concepts of development put forward by Chinese government can contribute to guide the world economy into a new long-tern cycle,which is also conducive to promote Chine's economy into a new round of development.