商业银行市场集中度与风险——基于中国16家上市银行面板数据分析

The Market Concentration Rate and Commercial Banks' Risk:Based on the Panel Data of 16 Listed Commercial Banks

笔者研究中国商业银行市场集中度与风险的关系,分别选取郝氏指数、勒纳指数来表征商业银行的市场集中度与商业银行市场势力。通过对中国16家上市商业银行建立固定效应面板数据模型,分析2007—2015年间国内16家商业银行风险的影响因素。研究结果表明:商业银行的市场集中度越高、资产规模越大,商业银行信用风险越小;中国商业银行的市场集中度和市场势力正在逐步降低;商业银行金融创新会提升商业银行信用风险与破产风险。笔者认为,中国上市商业银行的市场化进程正在逐步加深,风险控制能力应该进一步提升。同时,对于商业银行的去行政化应该加速推进,继续深入市场化运作,最终形成制度完善、市场化运作的商业银行市场。

This paper mainly discusses the relationship between the market concentration and risk of commercial banks＇ risk. We selected the Herfindahl-Hirschman index, Lerner index to represent the commercial banks＇ market concentration and market power. By establishing a fixed effect model, we analysis the risk effect factors of commercial banks from 2007 to 2015. Research results show that： the market concentration degree and the asset scale of commercial banks are negatively correlated with the credit risk of commercial banks ; commercial banks＇ market concentration and market power are gradually declining; the financial innovation of commercial banks will enhance the credit risk and bankruptcy risk of commercial banks. This paper believes that： the operation of the market process of China＇s commercial banks are gradually deepened, the risk control ability should be further improved. At the same time, the commercial banks should accelerate the reform process of the administration, enhance the level of market operation. And finally establish a perfect system with higher market competition and efficient market for commercial banks.