贸易自由化、进口竞争与中国工业行业技术复杂度

Trade Liberation,Import Competition and Chinese Industry Sophistication

本文基于中国工业企业数据库、海关贸易数据库、WTO关税数据库等数据,采用DID模型、分位数DID模型、面板回归模型和分位数回归模型等计量研究方法,实证研究了贸易自由化、进口竞争对中国工业行业技术复杂度的影响。研究结果表明:贸易自由化从总体上不能显著促进中国工业行业技术复杂度的提升,且不利于中低技术行业技术复杂度的提升,但能够显著促进较高技术行业技术复杂度的提升;最终产品进口竞争总体上不利于中国工业行业技术复杂度的提升,尤其是不利于低技术行业技术复杂度的提升,但能够促进高技术行业技术复杂度的提升;中间投入品进口竞争总体上也不利于中国工业行业技术复杂度的提升,尤其不利于低等和高等技术行业,但能够促进中等技术行业技术复杂度的提升。

This paper use DID model, quantile DID model, panel regression model and quantile regression model to study the impact of trade liberation and import competition on Chinese industry sophistication, based on Chinese industrial enterprises database, customs trade statistics and WTO tariff database. The result shows that, the improvement of trade liberation generally does not have a positive effect on Chinese industry sophistication, and leads a decrease of technology sophistication in the industry of medium or low technological level, but can lead an increase in the industry of high technological level. In the meantime, the increase of final goods import competition also has a negative effect on Chinese industry sophistication, especially for the industry of low technological level, but can promotes the growth of industry of high technological level. The improvement of intermediate inputs import competition generally also has a negative effect on industry sophistication, especially for the industry of low and high technological level, but can promotes the growth of industry of medium technological level.