金融危机如何影响服务产业贸易流量--基于二元边际的分析视角

The Impact of Financial Crisis on the Volume of Service Industry Trade

本文将Helpman et al.(2004)的异质性企业模型框架拓展至服务贸易领域,并引入金融危机影响,分析了金融危机对微观企业服务贸易二元边际的影响机制。在此基础上,本文选取2000-2013年全球42个国家服务产业层面的出口数据作为研究样本,采用HMR两阶段引力模型,就金融危机对服务出口的边际效应进行实证检验。研究结果表明,金融危机的发生会显著降低各国服务出口的广延边际,但对集约边际的影响则是不确定的。发达出口国集约边际在金融危机期间显著增加,发展中出口国集约边际则没有显著变化。分组检验结果表明,金融危机对服务出口的边际影响存在明显的国别差异和行业差异。

This paper extends theheterogeneous enterprise model of Helpman et al.（2004） to the field of trade in services, and investigates the impact of financial crises on the binary margins of trade in service firms. Based on the export data of service industry in 42 countries over the period 2000 to 2013, we use the HMR two-stage gravity model to examine the influence of financial crises on the marginal effect of trade in service export. We find that financial crises significantly reduce the extensive margin of services export, but the impact on the in- tensive margin is uncertain. In addition, there are significant national and industrial differences in marginal impact of financial crises on trade in services exports.