我国的能源消费与经济增长:1980～2011——基于非线性STR模型的实证分析

Analysis of Empirical Relationship of Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Based on Non-parameter STR Model in the Period of 1980～2011

能源消费与经济增长之间的长期动态关系是理论界一直研究的热点问题。本文建立了四个非线性平滑转换模型（STR）研究了1980-2011年的能源消费与经济增长之间的动态非线性关系。研究发现：STR模型所产生的拟合数据与原始数据的动态特征基本相同,能源消费与经济增长之间存在长期非线性关系,且两者之间有明显的区间转制动态特征。LSTR1模型能够准确刻画到我国能源消费、煤炭消费、石油消费与经济增长之间的非线性关系;而LSTR2模型能够准确刻画到我国电力消费与经济增长之间的非线性关系。

Based on annual data over the period from 1980 to 2011, this paper applies STR model to analyze the relationship between Chinese energy consumption and economic growth. The empirical results show that the rela-tionship between energy consumption and economic growth is nonlinear. The conclusion shows the relationship between energy consumption and coal consumption and petroleum consumption and economic growth is appropriate to utilize LSTR1 model to simulate. Meanwhile, the relationship between and electricity consumption and economic growth is appropriate to utilize LSTR1 model to simulate.