一种体现发展趋势的动态综合评价方法

A Dynamic Comprehensive Evaluation Method Embodying Development Tendency

针对动态综合评价中没有考虑被评价对象指标的发展趋势的问题,综合考虑评价指标的发展趋势、指标权重和时间权重的影响,构建了一种体现发展趋势的动态综合评价模型。定义了发展因子,用于表示被评价对象指标的发展趋势,在纵横向拉开档次法的基础上采用离差平方和最小化的方法确定指标权重,并建立了一种体现"厚今薄古"思想的时间函数来确定时间权重。最后,将该动态综合评价模型应用于中国西部地区宏观经济发展评价问题中。

Aiming to consider the development trend of the evaluation index in dynamic comprehensive evaluation, the paper constructs a dynamic comprehensive evaluation model of development tendency considering the influences of the evaluation index development tendency, index weights and time weights. The development factor is defined to denote the development trend of the evaluation index. On the basis of scatter degree, the attribute weights are obtained via the method to the minimize the sum of squares of deviations. Additionally, the time weights are determined by the model of time function which implies laying more stress on the present information than on the past. Finally, the model is applied to evaluate the degree of the macro economic development of western China.