基于遥感数据和数学模型的德州市土地利用动态变化研究

Research on dynamic change of land use in Dezhou City based on remote sensing data and mathematical model

基于遥感与GIS平台,利用土地利用动态度和土地利用转换指标模型,对德州市2005—2015年间土地利用时空特征进行定量分析.结果表明,近11年德州市土地利用变化前期速度较快,后期趋缓.在此基础上运用马尔科夫预测模型对该市未来15年土地利用演变趋势进行预测,显示2015年与实际基本符合,2030年耕地、未利用地将有所减少,城镇、农村居民点和独立工矿用地将逐年增加,草地和水体的面积变化不大.

Based on remote sensing and GIS platform, the use of the land use dynamic degree, land use conversion index model, the space-time characteristics of land use of Dezhou 2005--2015. Quantitative analysis results show that the early stage of the Dezhou nearly 10 years of land use change fast, slow late. On the basis of using the Markov prediction model to the city over the next 15 years of land use evolution trend forecast, with basic conform to the actual display 2015, 2030 land and unused land will be reduced, towns, rural residential areas and independent industrial and mining land will increase year by year, grassland and water area changed little.