限购、离婚与房地产区域差异

Property Purchase Restrictions,Divorce Rate and Regional Housing Market in China

在2010-2011年期间先后有46个城市开始推行房地产限购政策,这一政策在调节房地产市场需求、抑制房价过快增长的同时,催生了"中国式离婚"现象。本文分情况讨论了DID倍差法适用这一问题的条件是否成立,并利用该方法实证发现限购政策的出台显著提高了这类城市近年的离婚率、复婚率,其中离婚率提高了0.2个千分点(平均提升幅度约15%),复婚率提高了0.05个千分点(平均提升幅度约40%)。此外,"离婚潮"和限购政策是否严厉关系不大,但是和所在区域(东、中、西部)、房地产中介规模等代表房地产行业发展程度的指标有着密切的联系;同时,当房价收入比例的排名位于全国后60%时,购房需求主要表现为刚需,限购不会带来明显的离婚效应,而当房价高于这一临界值,则表现为投资需求的推动,已经拥有多套房的居民也要离婚购买。

In 2010 and 2011, 46 cities in China began to put restrictions on property purchase. This policy played an important role in tempering the demand and price for housing market, while at the same time generated a phenomenon of ＂fake divorce＂. In this paper, we use a difference in difference（DID）approach to identify this effect, and carefully analyze whether DID can be applied to our data. According to our findings, the property purchase restrictions increased the divorce rate by 0.2‰（about 15% percent）,and increased the marriage recover rate by 0.05‰（about 40% percent）. Furthermore, the increase was not related to the extent of restriction, but more significant in the east and middle region and in the cities where housing intermediaries are highly developed. We also show that when the ratio of housing price and income of a single city is above 40% among all cities, the ＂fake divorce＂ will be more apparent due to the investment demand.