基于属性数学理论的排土场滑坡风险预测及分级

Risk prediction and classification of waste dump landslide based on attribute mathematical theory

基于属性数学理论,研究了排土场滑坡风险评价问题,建立了排土场滑坡危险性预测及分级的属性识别法。将排土场滑坡危险性等级分为极高、较高、一般和较低4个级别;综合考虑排土场的地质条件、工程条件、气象条件和环境条件等4方面的因素,选择排土场地基坡度、边坡高度、边坡角、防排水设施、爆破质点振动速度、日降雨量、月累计雨量、最大地震烈度、下游人数、下游财产和乱采乱挖等11个参数作为评价指标,并确定了评价指标的分级标准;构建了单指标属性测度函数,以计算单指标的属性测度函数值和样本的综合属性测度值;应用置信度准则对样本进行了属性识别,以确定其状态级别属性。将建立的属性识别法对某露天矿山排土场进行滑坡风险识别,结果表明,属性识别法的识别结果与实际情况吻合,且评价结果与未确知测度法、物元可拓法的一致。

：Hazard evaluation of waste dump landslide was studied based on attribute mathematical theory, and the attribute recognition method of hazard prediction and classification of waste dump landslide was established. The hazard class of waste dump landslide was divided into four grades, i.e. extremely dangerous, more dangerous, general risk, and lower risk; Four factors including geological conditions, engineering conditions, meteorological conditions and environmental conditions were taken into account comprehensively, and eleven parameters including waste dump foundation slope grade, slope height, slope angle, waterproof and drainage facilities, blasting particle vibration velocity, daily rainfall, monthly cumulative rainfall, maximum earthquake intensity, population and prop- erty in downstream area, and blind mining and digging were selected as evaluation indexes, and the classification standards of the evaluation indexes were determined ; Then, the attribute measurement functions of every index were constructed to compute the attribute measurement value of single index and the comprehensive attribute measure- ment value; The status level of evaluation sample was attributively recognized by the confidence criterion to determine the hazard classification of waste dump slope landslide. By using the established attribute recognition method, one waste dump slope sample of a certain opencast mine was attributively recognized, and study indicates that the hazard classification results agree well with the actual situations and the results from unascertainty measurementmethod and matter-element extension method.