突发事件网络舆情演化的博弈分析——以茂名PX事件为例

Game Analysis on Evolution of Internet Public Opinion of Emergency: Case Study of Maoming PX Incident

[目的/意义]研究突发事件网络舆情的演变方向,为政府开展网络治理提供参考。[方法/过程]以茂名PX事件为例,构建博弈模型分析其网络舆情的演变规律,通过求解模型的演化稳定策略分析各作用主体在网络舆情演变过程中的博弈策略,指出各作用主体为有效引导网络舆情演变而应采取的策略。[结果/结论]突发事件网络舆情的演变是各行为者共同作用的结果。根据均衡分析,媒体在事件发生后会因新闻价值大而抢先发布消息;意见领袖会根据政府的监管力度而选择发布正面或反面的消息;政府在条件允许的情况下应做到公开信息,以避免不必要的猜疑。

[Purpose/significance ]The paper is to study on evolutional direction of Internet public opinion of emergency to provide reference for government＇s developing Internet administration. [Method/process] The paper takes Maoming PX incident for example, constructs a game model to analyze evolving rule of its Internet public opinion, solves model＇ s evolution stabilization strategy to analyze game strategy of each role subject in evolution of Internet public opinion, and points out which strategy each role subject should adopt to effectively guide the evolution. [Result/conclusion] Evolution of Internet public opinion of emergency results from interactions a- mong all actors. According to equilibrium analysis, after the event happened, media will grab off publishing news for great news value; opinion leader will base on strength of government supervision to choose to publish positive or negative news; so government should ooen information to avoid unnecessarv susoicions if the conditions allow.