基于模糊理论大跨浅埋公路隧道施工风险评估

Risk Assessment for Construction of Large-span and Shallow Buried Highway Tunnels Based on Fuzzy Theory

鉴于大跨浅埋公路隧道施工风险评估的模糊属性,采用模糊数学方法定量化处理施工风险估计中的定性问题。建立了茅山隧道施工风险多层次模糊综合评价数学模型,运用模糊理论对专家给出的茅山隧道施工各项风险因素的概率等级和损失等级隶属度进行统计分析,得到了各因素的概率及损失估计结果。基于R=P×C模型考虑了风险因素发生概率及损失对风险评估的影响,得到各风险因素、基本风险事件的风险等级,确定茅山隧道施工的安全风险、环境影响风险及整体风险等级为四级,应采取有效的风险控制措施应对。研究表明,模糊理论解决了风险评估中的模糊性及量化问题,可作为评估大跨浅埋公路隧道施工阶段风险的有效模型。

In view of risk assessing in the construction of large-span and shallow buried highway tunnels is fuzzy,the qualitative question of risk estimation for construction is processed quantitatively by using fuzzy mathematics method. A multi- level fuzzy synthetic evaluation mathematical model for construction risk of Maoshan tunnel is established,the probability level of risk factors and loss membership grade of Maoshan Tunnel construction given by experts are analyzed by using fuzzy theory. The probability and loss results are obtained. The influence of probability and loss of risk factors on risk assessment are overall evaluated based on R = P × C model,the rank of various risk factors and basic risk event are obtained. The rank of security risk,environment influence risk and overall risk in the construction of Maoshan Tunnel are four-stage,therefore effective risk control measures are advised. It is concluded that fuzzy theory had resolved the problem of fuzziness and quantization in risk assessment,and can act as a risk assessment model for the construction of large-span and shallow buried highway tunnels.