气候变化对甘肃河西走廊地区沙漠化影响的风险评价

Assessment of desertification risks caused by climate changes in the Hexi Corridor Region in Gansu Province

在3S技术的支持下,重建了过去30 a甘肃河西走廊地区沙漠化时空演变过程,构建出了一种动态模拟和评估沙漠化风险的评估方法,基于多模式气候变化情景数据对未来30 a气候变化造成的沙漠化风险进行了预估.研究发现:过去30 a甘肃河西走廊地区的沙漠化时空演变在空间分布的区域位置上没有发生重大改变,但沙漠化而积有所减小;甘肃河西走廊地区归一化植被指数与年积温间的相关性不十分显著,年降水量比年积温对肃肃西走廊地区归一化植被指数的贡献大;未来30 a不同气候变化情景下,甘肃河西走廊地区沙漠化风险空间分布表现特征不同,其中RCP2.6与RCP4.5情景下沙漠化风险空间分布表现出较高的相似性,RCP6.0情景下沙漠化风险最小,RCP8.5情景下沙漠化风险最大.

With the support of 3S technology, the spatio-temporal desertification process of Hexi Corridor Region in Gansu Province was reconstructed for the past 30 years. A method was constructed for the dynamic simulation and evaluation of risks of desertification. Based on the scenario data of climate changes, desertification risks in the future 30 years were predicted. The results showed that during the past 30 years, the desertification distribution in Hexi Corridor Region in Gansu Province underwent no significant change but its area decreased, the correlation between normalized difference vegetation index and accumulated temperature was not very significant and the annual precipitation contributed more than the an- nual accumulated temperature; in the next 30 years, under different climate change scenarios, the spatial distribution features of desertification risks in Hexi Corridor Region in Gansu Province would be different： RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 showed high similarity, RCP6.0 would be under the minimal desertification risk and RCP8.5 be under the biggest risk.