诱发南京地区呼吸系统疾病的气象条件与天气类型分析

Impact of meteorological conditions on respiratory mortality and cluster analysis of weather types in winter-half-year

利用南京地区2005-2008年冬半年(10月-次年3月)逐日气象资料和同期呼吸系统疾病死亡人数资料,采用"黄金分割法"计算体感温度,划分舒适度指数的方法,分析冬半年呼吸系统疾病死亡人数与舒适度(体感温度)之间的关系,归纳总结了诱发冬半年呼吸系统疾病患者死亡的天气类型.结果表明,呼吸系统疾病死亡人数随着平均体感温度的降低而升高,当冬半年体感温度达12℃和2℃C时,为南京地区呼吸系统疾病的警戒温度,呼吸系统疾病患者需注意防范.极端低温的天气条件是呼吸系统疾病患者死亡的高发期,尤其是舒适度等级为微冷时,微冷日数约占死亡高峰日总数的61.1%;诱发冬半年呼吸系统疾病患者死亡的天气类型可以分为6种,冷空气活动引起的气温低和气温日较差大是导致冬半年呼吸系统疾病患者发病、病情加重或死亡的主要原因.

The relationship between respiratory mortality and comfort levels （or apparent temperature） was analyzed based on meteorological data and respiratory mortality data of Nanjing in winter-half-year （October to next March） during 2005-2008, the comfort index was calculated by golden section algorithm, and weather types causing respiratory mortality were divided. The results showed that, a rise in respiratory mortality was connected with the reducing of apparent temperature, there were two warning apparent temperatures （12℃ and 2 ℃） in Nanjing in winter-half-year; the impact of extreme cold days, especially in level-cold weather, was exclusively observed among respiratory mortality reaching 61.1%; six weather types were divided in winter-half-year, and lower air temperature and higher diurnal air tem- perature caused by cold air activities were the reason for higher respiratory mortality in winter-half-year.