广东省主要农产品消费需求现状、趋势与对策

Consumption Demand of Main Agricultural Products in Guangdong Province

近年来,广东省主要农产品消费需求呈现新特征,主要农产品消费量走势各异,水稻与蔬菜的消费量平稳波动,食用油、肉类、水果和水产品消费总量均呈现不同程度的增长趋势。从消费结构角度看,城乡农产品消费结构存在较大差异,比如稻米、蔬菜城镇人均消费趋稳,农村居民消费开始下降。消费结构的转变导致了广东省主要农产品进出口情况转变,目前广东主要农产品进出口呈逆差状态,大部分小麦等粮食需从外省调入。采用GM(1,1)模型对广东主要农产品消费做出需求预测,发现未来10年的稻谷、蔬菜、食油、肉类、水果和水产品的消费需求均呈现平缓增加的趋势,并根据上述预测结果做出相应的政策建议。

In recent years, the consumption demand of major agricultural products in Guangdong Province presents new characteristics, main consumption of agricultural products is the trend of different, rice and vegetable consumption to smooth fluctuations, edible oil, meat, fruits and aquatic products consumption showed varying degrees of growth. From the perspective of consumption structure, consumption structure of urban and rural agricultural products exist great differences, such as rice, vegetables urban per capita consumption of stabilization, the consumption of rural residents began to decline. The change of consumption structure led to the main agricultural products in Guangdong Province Import and export situation change, the import and export of the main agricultural products in Guangdong was deficit, most of the wheat and other grain need from other provinces transferred. By using GM（1, 1） model on the consumption of main agricultural products in Guangdong make demand forecasting, has found that consumer demand for the next ten years of rice, vegetables, edible oil, meat, fruits and aquatic products showed a trend of increase in the flat, and according to the forecast results to make the corresponding policy recommendations.