双边投资协定(BIT)对中国对外直接投资(OFDI)的影响——基于2005—2014年中国对外直接投资数据的实证检验

The Effect of BIT on Chinese Outward Foreign Direct Investment——An Empirical Study Based on China OFDI Data in 2005—2014

基于2005—2014年中国对120个国家的OFDI数据,利用Tobit截尾模型和Heckman两阶段选择模型实证检验了双边投资协定对中国OFDI的影响。结果表明:双边投资协定促进了中国对外直接投资的发展,ICSID管辖条款在存在征收和国有化风险的情况下对中国对外直接投资有显著的促进作用。中国与东道国签订的BIT是否生效及BIT内容是否包含ICSID管辖条款是影响中国对外直接投资是否进入的重要因素,但不影响投资规模。

Using the panel data of China and 120 investment host countries from 2005 to 2014 and based on Tobit model and Heckman selection model,the paper studies the effect of BIT on Chinese OFDI. The empirical results suggest BIT encourage and promote China＇s outward foreign investment;ICSID provisions encourage and promote China＇s foreign direct investment on the condition of the expropriation and nationalization risk. Whether BITs take effect and whether BITs include ICSID provisions are decisive in China＇s foreign direct investment decision,but they do not affect the investment scales.