系统安全韧性的塑造与评估建模

Modeling on shaping and assessment of system safety resilience

为完善安全系统学理论体系,立足于理论思辨层面,基于韧性科学和安全系统学,提出安全韧性的定义,并解析其内涵,论述其研究意义。基于此,从3个维度构建系统安全韧性塑造体系的概念模型,并对其进行扼要阐释;深入剖析系统安全韧性塑造体系的作用机理,并构建其作用模型。基于系统安全韧性曲线,构建系统安全韧性评估的数学模型,并进行系统安全韧性曲线的对比分析。研究结果可为安全系统学研究提供新思路和新方法,系统安全韧性是安全系统学和韧性科学交叉领域一个值得关注的重要范式。

To perfect the theoretical system of safety systematics,stand on the level of theoretical speculation,the definition of safety resilience was proposed based on resilience science and safety systematics,and its connotation was analyzed,then the research significance was illustrated. On this basis,the conceptual model on shaping system of system safety resilience was constructed from three dimensions,and it was briefly explained. The action mechanism about shaping system of system safety resilience was discussed in detail,and its action model was established. Furthermore,the mathematical model for assessment of system safety resilience was constructed based on the curves of system safety resilience,and the comparative analysis on the curves of system safety resilience was conducted. The results can provide new ideas and new methods for the research on safety systematics,and the system safety resilience is an important paradigm of concern in the crossing field of safety systematics and resilience science.