目标价格是应对“托市困局”的良方吗?——对当前国内价格改革效果的再思考

Is Target Price Policy an Effective Prescription to Deal with the "Deadlock of Grain Prop Purchase" :Rethinking the Effect of Current Domestic Grain Price Policy Reform

粮食托市收购政策在保障粮食生产的同时也带来了粮食市场的价格扭曲及政府财政的过重负担。当前,目标价格政策已被视为解决这类"托市困局"的良药,成为粮食价格政策的未来调整方向。在对已有资料梳理概括的基础上,运用DID模型分析目标价格制度对农户生产积极性维持方面的影响。研究结果显示,目标价格制度在保护农户生产积极性方面尚未发挥积极影响。针对该结论,一方面可以从政策变迁视角给予解释,另一方面也可从目标价格制度自身理论缺陷方面提供依据。文章从既定的政策目标出发,在概括目标价格理论特征的基础上,进一步分析了目标价格实施的有效性及可持续性,为突破"托市困局"提供更为宽泛的思考视角。

The prop acquisition policy, which ensured the grain production, has lead to the price distortion problem in the grain market and become heavy burden of finance. At present, the target price policy has been deemed the effective strategy to solve the ＂deadlock of grain prop pur-chase＂ and the grain policy adjustment direction in the future. On the basis of literature review, this article applies DID model to analyze the effect of target price policy on maintaining farmer＇s production enthusiasm. The results show that the target price policy could not enhance farmer＇s enthusiasm of grain production. On this conclusion, on the one hand, it could be explained from the perspective of the policy change; on the oth-er hand, the theoretic defects of the target price policy could also provide supportive evidence. The article, from the perspective of established policy goals, on the basis of summarizing the theoretic features of the target policy theory, analyzed the effectiveness and sustainability of the target price policy further and provided a border perspective to solve the ＂deadlock of grain prop purchase＂.