基于SD的鄱阳湖域矿产资源开发生态经济系统模拟与控制

Simulating and Controlling of Eco-Economic System of Mineral Resources in Poyang Lake Zone Based on System Dynamics

运用系统动力学理论和方法,探讨鄱阳湖域矿产资源开发生态经济系统内诸要素间的交织作用,设计SD模型,以历史数据实现模型检验,证明模型结构、行为与实际状况是一致的。模拟维持现状、开发优先、节能环保、协调发展等四种发展模式下,2014—2030年间鄱阳湖域矿产资源开发和社会经济协调发展演变趋势。结果表明:到2030年,协调发展模式较维持现状模式,铜精矿累计保有储量提高了16.38%,GDP增加了8.69%,工业固废排放减少了7.40%,是鄱阳湖域矿产资源优化开发和社会经济全面协调、生态环境保护的较优发展模式。

Based on the theory and method of system dynamics, this paper analyzes the interaction of all the factors of the eco-economic system of mineral resources exploiting in Poyang Lake Zone. The system dynamic model is set up and then tested with the historical data. The high degree of authenticity proves the model is consistent with the actual situation of eco-economic system of mineral resources exploiting in Poyang Lake Zone. The authors adjust the main policy parameters to simulate the developing tendency of the mineral resources exploiting and the devel- opment of social economy from 2014 to 2030 under four developing scenarios （the maintaining status quo, the de- velopment priority, the resource environment priority and the coordinated development model）. The results show, compared with the maintaining status quo,the total maintaining reserves of copper will be improved by 16.38% ; GDP will be increased by 9.3% ,and the industrial solid wastes will fall by 7.4% under the coordinated development model in 2030. These could promote the intensive utilization of resources, the appropriate growth of population, the efficient development of the economy and protection of the ecological environment. Therefore, the coordinated development model will be the optimal one.