长江经济带沿江城市群空间分布格局与联动机理研究

SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION AND CORRELATION MECHANISM OF MEGALOPOLISES ON YANGTZE RIVER ECONOMIC BELT

引导长江经济带沿江城市群协同发展是新时期我国重要的区域发展战略。基于空间平滑核密度估算法、空间溢出系数、局域空间聚类指数、关联度滞后效应模型和因果检验模型,系统分析我国长江经济带沿江城市群的空间分布格局以及上中下游地区联动机理。研究表明:1目前长江流域发育程度达到城市群界定标准的有长江三角洲、长江中游和成渝三个城市群;2长江经济带城市群之间经济发展存在正向关联;3在流域联动方向上呈现出自下游长江三角洲城市群→中游城市群→上游成渝城市群的单向联动关系,且引致关联存在滞后效应。因此,有效畅通长江经济带城市群的空间溢出渠道、提高沿江城市之间的空间关联度,是缩小长江流域上中下游地区之间空间分布差异,推动流域一体化实现的关键。

One of important regional development strategies is to achieve collaborative development and to form fair and orderly spatial distribution along Yangtze River of China in new period. Based on the data of prefecture-level cities and county-level cities, the spatial distribution pattern and transmission mechanism have been examined by spatial smoothing method, spatial autocorrelation model, High-Low clustering index, vector auto regression estimate, and Granger causality test. The results show that： （~） Along Yangtze River, there are three city groups reach the standard definition of urban agglomeration-Yangtze River Delta city group, Middle Reaches of Yangtze River city group, and Chengdu Chongqing city group. The layer structures are multi-centre, single-centre and double-centre respectively. （~） There is a positive correlation between urban agglomerations on Yangtze River Economic Belt. The spatial distribution is HH clustering characteristic of Yangtze River Delta, LL clustering characteristic of Chengdu Chongqing area. There＇s no significant spatial clustering characteristic of Middle Reaches area, which shows as gray area. （~） The linkage direction is Yangtze River Delta---~Middle Reaches--~Chongqing and Chengdu. And there exists a lag effect. Therefore, to enhance spatial correlation between urban agglomerations along Yangtze River by unblocking spatial spillover channel is an effective measure for Yangtze River Economic Belt integration.