多情景下的电能替代潜力分析

Analysis of Electric Power Alternative Potential Under Multi-Scenario

国家电网公司于2013年提出实施"电能替代"战略,力求在终端能源消费环节实现用电能替代散烧煤、直燃油等化石燃料,最终实现能源发展方式的根本转变。为了对未来中长期电能替代发展趋势及潜力进行预测分析,定义电能替代量来量化电能替代潜力,建立了关于电能替代的环境负荷模型。将基于小波神经网络的智能修正预测模型嵌套在分析模型中,并通过脱钩理论模型确定多情景下的多种模型参数,实现对不同情景下终端电能替代量的有效预测。最后,对多种情景下未来中长期终端电能替代潜力进行了预测分析。

＂Electric power alternatives＂ scheme was proposed by State Grid Corp. of China in 2013, aiming at replacing fossil fuels such as coal and petroleum with electricity in terminal energy consumption. Its ultimate goal is to realize fundamental transform of energy development mode. In order to forecast and analyze potential and development of electric power alternatives, this paper defines alternative electric quantity as alternative energy potential. IPAT model about alternative energy is established and revised intelligent forecast model based on wavelet neural network is nested in IPAT model. Model parameters of multiple scenarios are determined with decoupling theory model and effective prediction of terminal alternative electric quantity in different scenarios is realized. At last, analytical results of long-term terminal electric power alternative potential are obtained.