面向智能电网的配电变压器重过载影响因素分析

Analysis of Factors Affecting Distribution Transformer Overload in Smart Grid

根据配变的历史负荷信息、天气信息、用电客户信息等相关资料,统计分析了配变重过载的主要影响因素。首先根据互信息概念及对策理论算法计算所有特征变量对配变重过载情况发生的相对重要性,然后使用贝叶斯和全概率公式计算配变重过载概率与特征变量之间的关系,最后根据重过载概率与特征变量间的关系对配变进行编码分类。分析结果表明:配变重过载主要因素为行业类别、用电类别、日平均温度及月平均温度;配变重过载多发生于采矿、制造等生产行业,乡村重过载率要高于城镇重过载率;大部分配变重过载发生于温度较高和较低时,少量的配变重过载发生在温度适宜时。配变月重过载天数与配变分类情况相吻合。

Based on information of historical distribution transformer load, weather, electricity customer and some other related information, main factors affecting overload probability of distribution transformers were analyzed. Firstly, relative importance of all characteristic variables on overload probability of distribution transformers was computed using mutual information concept and game theory. Then, relationship between overload probability and characteristic variables was analyzed using Bayes formula and total probability formula. Finally, on basis of relationship between overload probability and characteristic variables, distribution transformers were classified. Results show that main affecting factors are industry category, electricity category, daily and monthly mean temperatures. Overloads mainly exist in mining, manufacturing and other industries and overload probability is higher in rural areas than in urban areas. Most overloaded transformers exist in higher and lower temperature and only a small amount of overloaded transformers exist in appropriate temperature. Monthly overload days are accordant with classification of distribution transformers.