基于知识元的非常规突发事件情景模糊推演方法

Fuzzy inference method for unconventional events scenarios based on knowledge unit

针对非常规突发事件的情景表示中跨领域、跨学科知识支持和微观分析的不足,基于情景要素及其相互作用关系的相对微观分析,给出了一种以知识元模型为基础的情景表示模型;针对非常规突发事件情景推演中信息不确定性问题,提出了一种模糊推演方法,应用知识元间相互作用关系构建模糊规则,将不确定的情景信息与模糊规则进行匹配,判断情景推演的结果及其可能性,进而为决策者进行决策提供依据.最后,以舟曲泥石流事件为例,验证了文中方法的科学性和实用性.

In view of the lack of interdisciplinary knowledge support and microscopic analysis in scene ex- pression of unconventional emergencies, this paper proposes a scenario representation model based on the knowledge unit model and the micro-analysis of scenarios factors and their interactions. In view of the uncer- tainty of information in scenarios inference, a fuzzy inference method is introduced. This method constructs the fuzzy rules on the basis of the interaction between knowledge units, matches the uncertainty information with the fuzzy rules, and then estimates the results and probability of scenarios inference which can provide the basis for decision making. Finally, the Zhouqu debris flow event is given as an example to testify the feasibility and practicability of the proposed method.