中国与中亚五国货币金融合作的经济基础和路径设计

The Economic Basis and Path Design for the Monetary and Financial Cooperation Between China and the Five Central Asian Countries

货币金融合作是深化中国与中亚经济合作的重要内容,也是推动经济金融全球化和国际货币体系改革的迫切要求。本文依据最优货币区理论,探讨中国与中亚五国货币金融合作的经济基础。研究结果表明,相比欧元区成立初始条件,中国与中亚五国的经济开放度、贸易结构互补性达到了标准,而通胀率相似性、生产要素的流动性、财政政策一体化等指标表现相对欠佳,中国与中亚目前还不完全具备建立货币合作区的基础条件。为此,中国与中亚国家应坚持循序渐进、由易到难原则,分阶段有步骤地推进区域货币金融合作。

Monetary and financial coopertion is not only an important content for deepening the cooperation between China and the Central Asian countries,but also an urgent requirement for promoting the Economic and Financial Globlization and the reform of International Monetary System. This paper investigates the economic basis for the monetary and financial cooperation between China and the five Central Asian Countries,based on the theory of Optimum Currency Area（OCA）. The results show that compared to the initial conditions for the establishment of the euro area,the economic openness and the complementarity of trade structure between China and the five Central Asian countries have reached the standard. But indexes such as the similarity of inflation rate, the fluidity of factor of production and the integration of fiscal policy are performed relatively poor. That is to say,the basic condition to build a moretary cooperation zone between China and the Central Asian has not fully equipped at present. There fore, China and the Central Asian countries should insist on principle of step by step,and promote the regioral monetarv and financial cooperation in stages.