长三角地区城市化与碳排放的实证关系研究——基于修正后的STIRPAT模型

Empirical Research of Relation between Urbanization and Carbon Emissions in Yangtze River Delta Region——Based on the Revised STIRPAT Model

在全球碳减排压力日益增大的背景下,正处于城市化、工业化中后期阶段的中国对能源的急切需求使我国碳减排的形势变得更加严峻。而长江三角洲地区作为中国城市化发展进程最快的地区之一,面临的挑战则更为艰巨。本文针对长三角地区阶段性碳排放、经济发展和城市化发展的特征,对STIRPAT模型进行修正,引入城市化率、人力资本等城市化因素,采用岭回归的方法,对其城市化和碳排放间的关系分别进行了理论分析和实证研究,得出结果表明应在城市化进程中采取可持续的消费方式,合理控制人口规模、外来人口结构和城市结构,大力研发清洁能源,实现社会、经济、环境的可持续发展。

Under the background of increasing carbonemission reduction pressure and in the middle and last stage of industrialization in urbanization process, the growing demand for energy make China face a more severe challenge of reducing carbon emissions. As a region with one of the fastest urbanization process in China, the challenge for Yangtze River delta region is more difficult. In view of the stage characteristics of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River delta region, economic development and urbanization, this article modifies the STIRPAT model and introduces urbanization factors such as human capital, urbanization rate. By using the method of ridge regression, through theoretical analysis and empirical research of the relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions, the results show that we should adopt sustainable consumption patterns in the process of urbanization, reasonably control the size of population and the structure of floating population and urban structure. And at the same time, vigorously develop clean energy.