中国在斐济的国际影响力受何影响——以中美关系为外部因素的分析

What Affect China's International Influence in Fiji:An Analysis Based on External Factor of Sino-U.S.Relation

中国在斐济的国际影响力不仅关系到中国在斐济的发展,而且关系到中国在南太平洋地区的前景,但是近年来中美关系的变化使得中国在南太平洋地区的前景面临考验。通过界定中国在斐济影响力的指标,对2000年至2013年中美关系及中国在斐济影响力的各个构成因素与影响力的关系进行相关分析和回归分析,可以发现:中美关系的变化不会影响中国在斐济的影响力,但却与中国对斐济的进出口总额呈正相关关系。中国在斐济的影响力主要受领导人出访斐济的次数、对斐济的进出口总额以及对斐济的公共外交成果这三个方面的影响,特别是与对斐济的公共外交有着较强的正向因果关系。

China＇ s international influence not only concerns our development in Fiji, but also concerns our prospect in South Pacific region, which is tested by the changes of Sino - U. S. relations in recent years. This article makes a correlative and regressive analysis on Sino - U. S. relations from 2000 to 2013 and the component factors of our influence in Fiji. The result of the analysis shows that changes of Sino - U. S. relation do not affect China＇ s influence in Fiji, but has a positive correlation with China＇ s total imports and exports with Fiji. China＇ s influence in Fiji is mainly affected by frequencies of our leaders＇ visiting Fiji, the total imports and exports with Fiji, as well as the public diplomatic results which in particular has an obvious positive causality.