中国燃煤部门大气汞排放协同控制效果评估及未来预测

Evaluation of co-benefits on atmospheric mercury emission control for coal combustion in China and future projection

汞污染已成为一个全球性的环境问题,我国是世界上大气汞排放量最大的国家,在批准《关于汞的水俣公约》之后,我国的汞污染控制面临严峻的挑战.燃煤部门是我国大气汞排放的第一大部门,也是履约的重点部门.本研究建立了我国燃煤部门2010年和2012年的大气汞排放清单,评估了"大气污染防治行动计划"("大气十条")对燃煤部门大气汞排放的协同控制效果.同时,使用情景分析法,对2020年和2030年燃煤部门的大气汞排放进行了预测,分析了未来不同控制措施的减排效果.结果表明,2010年中国燃煤电厂、燃煤工业锅炉和民用燃煤炉灶的大气汞排放量的最佳估计值分别为100.0、72.5和18.0 t."大气十条"的实施可使我国燃煤部门到2017年比2012年减少92.5 t的大气汞排放.能源结构的调整、洗煤比例的提高和除尘设备的升级改造对于大气汞的减排效果最显著.在最佳估计情景下,2020年和2030年燃煤部门大气汞排放量分别为128.5和80.0 t,与2010年相比分别降低了33%和58%;在最严格控制情景下,2020年和2030年燃煤部门大气汞的排放量分别为103.2和50.9 t,相较2010年分别下降了46%和73%.

Mercury pollution has become a global environmental issue.China is the largest anthropogenic emitter of atmospheric mercury. After ratifying the Minamata Convention on Mercury,China faces substantial challenges on mercury emission control. Coal combustion is the largest atmospheric mercury emission sector as well as the key sector for fulfilling Convention obligations. In this study,we developed the atmospheric mercury emission inventories for coal-fired power plants（ CFPPs）,coal-fired industrial boilers（ CFIBs） and coal-fired residential stoves（ CFRSs） in 2010 and 2012,evaluated the cobenefit of atmospheric mercury emission reduction associated with actions already conducted to comply with the Action Plan for Prevention and Control of Air Pollution（ ＂Ten Measures＂）,and predicted the atmospheric mercury emission from the coal combustion sector by 2020 and 2030 based on scenario analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of different control measures in the future. The best estimates for atmospheric mercury emission from CFPPs,CFIBs and CFRSs in 2010 are 100.0 t and 72.5 t and 18.0 t,respectively. The implementation of the＂Ten Measures＂will reduce atmospheric mercury emission from the coal combustion sector by 92.5 t from 2012 to 2017. Adjustment of energy structure,increase of coal washing application rate and retrofit of dust collectors have the most significant co-benefit on atmospheric mercury emission reduction. Under the best estimate scenario,the mercury emission from the coal combustion sector in 2020 and 2030 will be 128.5 t and 80.0 t,respectively,33% and 58% lower than that in 2010; and under the most stringent scenario,the mercury emission from the coal combustion sector in 2020 and 2030 will be 103.2 t and 50.9 t,respectively,46% and 73% lower than that in 2010.