能源价格、全要素生产率变动对我国工业能源强度影响的实证研究

Empirical Research on Energy Prices,Changes in Total Factor Productivity and their Impact on the Industrial Energy Intensity

利用我国工业1990—2015年间的统计数据,根据随机前沿生产模型理论将全要素生产率分解为技术进步、纯技术效率和规模效率三种技术路径,引入Malmquist生产率指数分解出反映技术变化的技术进步指标(TC)及技术效率指标(EC),并建立计量经济模型,研究能源价格、全要素生产率对能源强度的影响。结果表明,全要素生产率变化可在能源价格和能源强度间起到有效的调节作用,且从长期来看,纯技术效率的提高可为工业能耗的降低起到正向作用,技术进步则在短期和长期内可达到促进行业发展和节能减排的双赢结果,而规模效率对于降低能源强度的正向调解机制尚不显著,但从长期看来仍表现出积极趋势。

Using the data of second industrial 1990 - 2015, according to the theory of stochastic frontier production mod- el, TFP is decomposed into three technical routes of technical progress, pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency. The introduction of Malmquist productivity index decomposition progress indicators reflect technological change technology （TC） and technical efficiency indexes （EC） , and establish an econometric model to study the energy prices, and the impact of TFP on energy intensity. The results showed that： TFP change can play an effective role in the regulation between energy prices and energy intensity; and in the long run, pure technical efficiency to reduce industrial energy consumption can play a positive role in technological progress in the short and long term to reach a win - win results of promoting the development of energy saving industry; scale efficiency for reduced energy intensity of positive mediation mechanism is not significant, but in the long run still shows a positive trend.