北京市2009-2015年发热、腹泻症状聚集性疫情季节分布特征分析

Seasonality of clustering of fever and diarrhea in Beijing, 2009-2015

目的 分析北京市发热、腹泻聚集性病例时间分布特征。方法 收集2009-2015年《北京市传染病症状监测信息系统》中发热、腹泻症状聚集性数据，运用集中度与圆形分布方法对其时间分布特征进行分析。结果 集中度法分析结果显示聚集性发热、聚集性腹泻的M值分别为0.57、0.47；圆形分布分析结果显示聚集性发热、聚集性腹泻的角度离散程度指标R值分别为0.57、0.46，样本平均角雷氏检验Z值分别为414.14、148.09，P值均〈0.01，有季节性，聚集性发热高峰日为10月13日，流行期为8月13日至12月14日；聚集性腹泻高峰日7月31日，流行期为5月20日至10月11日。结论 北京市聚集性发热具有较强的季节分布特征，聚集性腹泻具有一定的季节分布特征。聚集性发热流行期在秋冬季，聚集性腹泻流行期在夏秋季。

Objective To understand the seasonal distribution of the clustering of fever and diarrhea. Methods Concentration degree and circular distribution methods were used to analyze the seasonal distribution of the clustering of fever and diarrhea in Beijing from 2009 to 2015. The information were collected from the Infectious Disease Surveillance Information System of Beijing. Results The M values of the clustering of fever and diarrhea were 0.57 and 0.47. Circular distribution results showed that the clustering of fever and diarrhea angle dispersion index R values were 0.57 and 0.46 respectively, the sample average angle of Rayleigh＇s test Z values were 414.14, 148.09 respectively （all P〈0.01）. The clustering of fever and diarrhea had seasonality. The incidence peak of fever was on October 13, and the epidemic period was during August 13-December 14. The incidence peak of diarrhea was on July 31, and the epidemic period was during May 20-October 11.Conclusion The clustering of fever had obvious seasonality in Beijing, which mainly occurred in autumn and winter. The cluster of diarrhea had certain seasonality, which mainly occurred in summer and autumn.